Whenever you have some key measurement that you try to optimize, it is almost always the case that the optimal measurement is not quite 100%. Take the Unemployment Rate: the policy goal is not 100% employment (or 0% unemployment). The policy goal is something like 2-5% unemployment, reflecting some workplace mobility and the usual employment turnover due to the business cycle. If you think about what it would take to reach 0% unemployment, chances are some weird, dystopian thing would be going on that nobody wants.
#44: Base Rates of Error
#44: Base Rates of Error
#44: Base Rates of Error
Whenever you have some key measurement that you try to optimize, it is almost always the case that the optimal measurement is not quite 100%. Take the Unemployment Rate: the policy goal is not 100% employment (or 0% unemployment). The policy goal is something like 2-5% unemployment, reflecting some workplace mobility and the usual employment turnover due to the business cycle. If you think about what it would take to reach 0% unemployment, chances are some weird, dystopian thing would be going on that nobody wants.